China Confidential

Hu First?

Like Joe One, the American code-name (for Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin) for the first Soviet atomic weapon test, which took place on August 29, 1949, the Chinese satellite strike of January 11, 2007 is both literally and figuratively an explosive event--one capable of triggering a terrifying and costly new arms race or cold war.

For the United States, China's destruction of one of its own obsolete weather satellites is at a minimum a serious slap in the face by an increasingly nationalistic regime bent on replacing the US as the global Hegemon. Forget the multipolar baloney meant to calm overseas concerns: Chin's long-term goal is a unipolar world ... dominated by the Middle Kingdom.

The satellite intercept by a medium-range KT-1 ballistic missile belies Beijing's peacefully rising propaganda and the wishful thinking--or outright disinformation--on the part of the fawning US State Department that China is becoming a so-called responsible stakeholder in the international community.

The brazen blast also mocks the absurd argument of US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson that China's economic, political--and even military--rise is somehow in the US national interest. Nothing could be farther from the truth.

The satellite strike could be the tip of the iceberg, or missile, if you will. Worse news is yet to come. The destroyed orbiter occupied a region of space only around 500 miles high--known as low-Earth orbit--which is the lowest of the available satellite orbits. Low-Earth orbit is favored for spy satellites because it gives the military the best possible images of the ground. But analysts say China has developed two longer-range missiles-- the KT-2 and the KT-2A--which carry boosters and are therefore thought to be capable of reaching more critical satellites in higher orbits, including GPS satellites that are crucial for smart weapons--such as cruise missiles--and geostationary broadband communications satellites that orbit at around 22,000 miles.

GPS and broadband satellites are the Achilles' heels of modern warfare. During the Iraq war, satellites accounted for more than 80 percent of communications among allied forces.

Which is why China is so eager to develop the capability of knocking them out. If the US command and control satellite network could be neutralized, the risks of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be dramatically reduced. The Chinese test thus constituted a warning shot at the prosperous, democratically governed island, which China has vowed to recover by military means if Taiwan's government moves toward declaring formal independence (or if negotiations aimed at peaceful reunification prove pointless).

Taiwan got the message. On Friday, it expressed concern and anger at China's space war stunt, saying it has revealed Beijing's ambition to become a military superpower.

"China's action makes the whole world suspect that China's self-claimed 'peaceful emergence' is deception and propaganda," Taiwan government spokesman Cheng Wen-tsan said. "Deep in its bones, China want to become a military superpower and dominate the region by force."

Ironically, in written testimony submitted to the US Senate Select Committee on Intelligence on the same day China conducted its anti-satellite test, the country was named alongside Russia as "the primary states of concern regarding military space and counter-space programs" by US Army Lt. Gen. Michael Maples, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency.

Said Maples: "Several countries continue to develop capabilities that have the potential to threaten US space assets, and some have already deployed systems with inherent anti-satellite capabilities, such as satellite-tracking laser range-finding devices and nuclear-armed ballistic missiles."

Notwithstanding the above, the word among Washington insiders is that the US State Department and intelligence community was shocked by the Chinese test.

After all the surprises and disappointments in recent years, how could this happen?