China Confidential

Interesting symmetry....

Looking ahead in the US Presidential race, Republican Senator John McCain and Democratic Senator Barack Obama each have a foreign policy problem that could cost each candidate dearly in a general election.

In the case of the Republican frontrunner, the problem is McCain's steadfast support for the deeply unpopular war in Iraq--specifically, his statement that the US could be militarily engaged there for 100 years. There is no significant support for that position--even among Republicans, let alone among independent voters and disaffected Democrats.

In the case of Obama, who is running neck and neck with Senator Hillary Clinton for their party's nomination, the problem is not the Iraq war--which Obama, in contrast with Clinton, opposed fighting in the first place--but the West's nuclear standoff with Iran, an implacable foe of the US and Israel. Obama wants to negotiate with Iran--even to the point, perhaps, of meeting face to face with its Hitlerian president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

As Iran's intentions become more and more apparent, it will be increasingly difficult for Obama to make the case for relying on diplomacy to deal with the looming national security threat that Iran represents.

In criticizing Obama's stance on Iran, both McCain (in the general election, assuming Obama is the Democratic candidate) and Clinton (in trying to prevent Obama from getting the nomination) can point to Tuesday's testimony before the US Senate Intelligence Committee by National Intelligence Director John Michael McConnell. Speaking just two months after a US National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) cast doubt on Iran's nuclear ambitions, McConnell said it is unclear whether the Islamist nation has resumed its nuclear weapons program. He warned that Iran "would be technically capable of producing enough highly enriched uranium for a weapon" by the end of 2009.

McCain and Clinton can also point to yesterday's remarks by Dr. John Chipman, director-general and chief executive of the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies. Iran seems determined to flout United Nations resolutions, and is making progress with a new generation of nuclear centrifuges, Chipman told reporters.

He said that the December NIE "changed the dynamics of efforts to curb Iran's dual-use nuclear program. It had the effect of taking off the table the near-term prospect of US military action."

Russia's delivery of 82 tons of low-enriched uranium fuel "removed another form of leverage over Iran although it also underscored questions about the purpose of the Natanz enrichment plan," Chipman added.