Foreign Confidential ™

The Israeli view is in sync with the China Confidential analysis: U.S. President Barack Obama's engagement (appeasement) policy has effectively strengthened the Iranian Islamist regime--and Islamism in general. The Christian Science Monistor reports from Israel:

Instead of pursing a diplomatic track alone, the United States should also be imposing tougher sanctions and threatening a military attack, Israeli military experts said. This carrot-and-stick approach would apply pressure on Iran to negotiate in good faith and with haste. "There will be no chance to reach an agreement if there is diplomacy which is not backed by a military option," said Maj. Gen. Eitan Ben Eliyahu, a former commander in the Israeli air force.

While many agree, Israelis are debating whether Iran's political system is weaker or stronger after the June 12 presidential election, which sparked the gravest unrest since the 1979 Islamic revolution.

Some Israelis believe Iran's political elites are vulnerable to the broad-based opposition movement inside the country, which is waiting in the wings for another opportunity to foment a large-scale rebellion. But by negotiating with Iran, they say, the US is weakening this opposition by giving legitimacy to a circle of hard-liners who brought Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to power when they rigged the election on June 12.

Many Iranians agree with this view. In fact, there was a discussion on several Farsi-language blogs and websites before the negotiations began in October, demanding that the Obama administration insist that a leader in the opposition movement participate in the talks. This would show the hard-liners running the state, they said, that the world does not recognize the current government as the sole representative of the Iranian people.

There seems to be evidence already that Iran's political system is deriving strength from the negotiations. Not only has Iran now ignored the deadline, which was Oct. 23, to accept a draft proposal agreed upon last week in Vienna, but powerful figures have unleashed hostile rhetoric about the process.

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