Reports suggest that Iran is bluffing, that it may not be able to block the flow of oil from the Persian Gulf and that its missiles may not be able to inflict as much damage as it says. Click here for the story.
Foreign Confidential™ analysts respectfully disagree. Iran's intentions toward Israel and the United States are entirely evil. It is hard to understand how the IRGC and its Quds Force terror cells and more than 100,000 Iranian/Hezbollah/Syrian missiles (and stockpiles of Syrian warheads) do not constitute a potentially existential threat to Israel and a serious threat to U.S. forces in the Middle East. If not for Israel's presumed nuclear deterrent, Israel would have already been bombarded. If not for the missile threat to israel, it would already have wiped out Iran's nuclear sites.
This reporter remembers when Israel's generals and political establishment convinced themselves that Egypt was not a serious threat. A hero of the Six-Day War, Israeli defense minister Moshe Dayan, told reporters in the summer of 1973 that it would be at least five years before Egypt could think of attacking Israel. Egypt attacked Israel on Yom Kippur of that year, on October 6, and the surprise strike into the Sinai Peninsula, coordinated with a Syrian sneak attack on the Golan Heights, nearly ended the Jewish State. Dayan himself, on the verge of a nervous breakdown, had to be stopped by Prime Minister Golda Meir from calling a press conference announcing Israel's destruction.