Hoping Against Hope for a Coup
Appeasement and attempts to actually align with Islamist Iran have made war with it inevitable; and the conflict could be absolutely horrific, involving, even, the use of nuclear weapons, given the Iranian-Hezbollah missile threat, the monstrous mullahocracy's repeated threats to wipe Israel off the map--and the Jewish State's presumed atomic arsenal.
Even if an agreement of some sort is hammered out to seemingly stop or control Iran's nuclear program--an October surprise is still possible--only a fool (or a fifth columnist) will celebrate the deal, for it will surely be riddled with holes big enough to accommodate WMD-tipped, Iranian ICBMs. No way will the world be able to inspect and monitor the numerous, secret nuclear "workshops" that have reportedly been scattered and well fortified across Iran.
Put differently, a phony peace pact-for-our-time--which at a minimum will have to include a non-intervention/non-interference pledge on the part of the United States--will initially serve to deter only Israel. It will feel more isolated and alone than ever … but also, over the long run, more reliant than ever on drastic measures to prevent the leveling of its cities and towns by enemy missiles.
So where does that leave us? Is there a way to preserve the peace without sacrificing the security of Israel and the Western world? (This reporter contends that the United States, not Israel, could be a nuclear-armed, Islamist Iran's first target because there is no known deterrent against an anonymous atomic attack on the U.S. homeland. In contrast with U.S. policy in this regard, Israel is assumed to have put in place fail-safe systems for the automatic obliteration of suspect nations should a nuclear device of any kind ever be detonated on or above Israeli territory.)
Yes. There is a way to preserve the peace--namely, regime change from within, through a popular revolution (which is highly unlikely considering that the Hitlerian regime has all the guns) or a military coup. Not since the mid-to-late 1930s has a coup been so badly needed. One hopes that a truly patriotic commander of the Iranian Army, or Artesh, as opposed to the SS-like Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), will come to the aid of his country before it's too late.
Admittedly, a coup is a long shot. The regular military has been thoroughly politicized; and the regime seems practically coup-proof. Accent on seems. Appearances can be deceiving, as shown by the awful events of 1978 and '79 that brought the bloodthirsty Ayatollah and his mad mullahs to power in the first place (with the complicity of the catastrophic Carter administration). Who knows what is really happening in Iran? (Washington certainly doesn't know.) There may in fact be an Iranian commander with the courage and skill to change history, someone capable of overthrowing the clerical fascist tyranny--the IRGC and its dreaded Basij stormtroopers will have to be utterly defeated--in order to pave the way for a new, democratic Iran. For all we know, he and his fellow officers and followers could be planning their daring mission right now.
Postscript: There may be a second way to prevent war--truly meaningful cooperation between the U.S. and Russia and the U.S. and China on a level not seen since the Second World War. Unfortunately, the prospects for this are far from bright in light of the history of the post-Cold War period and the current administration's failure to "reset" relations with Moscow.
Copyright © 2012 Foreign Confidential™