Foreign Confidential™ early warning.
A new era of North Korean belligerence has begun, which could lead to a full-blown war between the criminal Kimist regime--which depends on China for most of its food, fuel, and armaments--and U.S. ally South Korea.
The North defiantly conducted an illegal test of an intercontinental ballistic missile, thinly disguised as a space rocket. The failure of the so-called satellite launch--the missile disintegrated moments after blasting off--will only make the North more defiant and more belligerent, because the test was foolishly staged as a media event. (First rule of a seasoned public relations specialist: whenever possible avoid inviting the press to any event with an outcome that can't be controlled.) Thus, the regime was forced to acknowledge the failure--an unprecedented move by the world's most secretive and repressive dictatorship.
The fiasco will strengthen the hands of those within the ruling circle who opposed the opening to the world media in the first place, meant to show off the North's achievements as it celebrates the 100th birthday of its founding leader, Kim Il Sung, the current Kim's grandfather. (The North's dynastic rule is unparalleled in the history of world Communism.)
One or more nuclear tests are in the works, analysts say. Worse, they warn, the North will feel compelled to do something spectacular in the missile sphere to make up for the historic embarrassment of the failed ICBM test. Provocations could transcend mere drills; instead, the North could again attack a South Korean island, or similar target--maybe even a military base--this time using short-range missiles as well as artillery shells.
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