Friday, November 16, 2012

A Deadly Rehearsal of the Coming Aerial War?

The "Hamas-Israel" war increasingly seems like a deadly rehearsal for the real aerial war to come--between Israel and Iran/Hezbollah/Hamas.

Syria is a major unknown. Bristling with ballistic missiles and chemical warheads, the beleaguered Arab regime clinging to power in Damascus, a secular ally of both Iran and Russia, has repeatedly warned that it is prepared to bombard Israel if the West overtly intervenes militarily, or goes too far with its covert aid to the forces seeking the regime's overthrow.

And what of Egypt … now under Islamist control, owing to the disastrous betrayal and abandonment of the pro-Western Mubarak government … and Turkey, a full NATO member, whose "moderate Islamist" leaders dream of restoring the Ottoman Empire … what will these mighty, military powers (Turkey, especially) do if and when Israel is forced to take drastic action resulting in large-scale civilian casualties among its enemies? The Islamizing of what was historically dubbed "the Arab-Israeli conflict" threatens to make political solutions practically impossible.

Clashing imperialist (in the classical realist sense--meaning, a foreign policy aiming to overturn the status quo) rivalries and ambitions in an almost unbelievably explosive environment … a clear recipe for catastrophe.

And Israel is smack in the middle of the chaotic mess; and, unlike the United States, Israel has nowhere to go, is stuck in its neighborhood, for better or worse.